Martech News: AI, Data, and What It All Means

Title: Adobe Buys Semrush: A $1.9 Billion Bet on...What Exactly?

Adobe's acquisition of Semrush for $1.9 billion has the marketing world buzzing. The official narrative is that this is about "brand visibility" in the age of generative AI. But let's dissect that claim, shall we? Because something about this deal doesn’t quite add up under scrutiny.

Adobe argues that CMOs are worried about how their brands appear across LLMs (Large Language Models) and search. Semrush, with its "data-driven generative engine optimization (GEO)" and SEO tools, is supposed to solve this. The idea is that as AI becomes the new interface between customers and brands, Semrush ensures brands remain "represented, discovered, and trusted."

Okay, but here's where the story starts to get a little wobbly. The press release highlights Semrush's 33% year-over-year Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth in its enterprise segment. Sounds impressive, right? But that's just one segment. What about overall growth? And more importantly, what's the size of that enterprise segment ARR? A 33% increase on a small base doesn't justify a $1.9 billion valuation. (And I'm already seeing grumbling in the comments section about this price tag.)

The AI Hype Train

The acquisition is being framed as a response to the rise of generative AI. Adobe Analytics data supposedly shows a 1,200% year-over-year increase in traffic from generative AI sources to U.S. retail sites in October. Now, a 1,200% increase sounds massive. But let's think about that for a second. What was the starting point? If traffic was negligible to begin with, a 1,200% increase could still be a relatively small number in absolute terms. It's a classic case of percentage increases masking underlying realities. Without the actual traffic numbers, that 1,200% figure is practically meaningless.

This feels like a land grab fueled by fear of missing out on the AI boom. Everyone's scrambling to add AI to their portfolio, even if the strategic fit is questionable. Is Adobe genuinely convinced that Semrush is the key to brand visibility in the AI era, or are they simply checking a box to appease investors?

Methodological Critiques

And how are we even measuring brand visibility in LLMs? Are we talking about keyword rankings? Sentiment analysis of AI-generated content? The metrics are still being defined, which makes any claims about Semrush's ability to "ensure" brand representation seem premature at best.

I've looked at hundreds of these filings, and this particular footnote is unusual: Adobe received commitments to vote in favor of the transaction from Semrush’s founders and other stockholders representing over 75% of the voting power of Semrush. I'm not saying this is a red flag, but it's certainly something to consider when evaluating the deal's fairness.

It's also worth noting that the deal isn't expected to close until the first half of 2026. That's a long time. A lot can change in the martech landscape in a year and a half (or, for that matter, in the AI landscape). What if a new technology emerges that makes Semrush's GEO capabilities obsolete? What if regulatory hurdles delay or even block the acquisition?

The Bigger Picture

Looking at the broader martech landscape, it's clear that companies are grappling with uncertainty. An article titled "The three forces that shaped martech in 2025" highlights sluggish spending and instability. Companies are "exploring new technologies, integrations, and strategies, but they aren’t getting close enough to pull the trigger." This hesitancy suggests that the market may not be as receptive to new tools as Adobe hopes.

And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. McKinsey’s “Rewiring martech: From cost center to growth engine” points out that "not one of the 50 or so senior marketing leaders we interviewed at Fortune 500 companies could clearly articulate the ROI of their organization’s investment in martech and how it’s driving value." If even marketing leaders can't explain the value of their current martech stack, what makes Adobe think they'll suddenly see the light with Semrush?

Questionable ROI Justification

The acquisition of Semrush by Adobe for $1.9 billion hinges on the premise that Semrush's SEO and GEO solutions will significantly enhance Adobe's Digital Experience business. However, Adobe’s ability to realize cost savings, synergies, and other potential benefits of the proposed transaction within the expected time frames or at all is uncertain. The history of martech investments, as highlighted by McKinsey, suggests that many organizations struggle to clearly articulate the return on their martech investments.

So, What's the Catch?

Adobe's acquisition of Semrush feels less like a strategic masterstroke and more like a high-stakes gamble on the AI hype train. The numbers don't fully support the narrative, and the strategic fit remains questionable.